And I have to buck my own trend by writing this a day early but what can you do when the powers that be decide to throw a Classic at you on a Friday afternoon?
Before we look at the runners and riders at Epsom over the weekend I have to ask if everyone else is getting bombarded with “tipster” e-mails and texts – or is it only me? I have to admit that in the naivety of youth I did believe that there were shady characters out there (in my imagination they smoked hand rolled cigarettes and hid behind trees watching horses), who “knew” what was going on, but I am amazed to see how many of them there are in the year 2019.
Ladies and gentlemen, may I please burst your bubble and point you in the direction of a large dose of reality. There are people out there who work in the industry and perhaps, though years of hard work and the ability to follow racing full-time, and they should know more than Mr or Mrs Average (I would like to think I am one of them but that’s another story), but the person who knows all the winners simply DOES NOT EXIST. As a writer I can (and regularly do) get frustrated at being called a “tipster” with all the negative baggage that terms seems to come with, and I am wary of being lumped in with all the con artists and get rich quick brigade out to fleece you of your money, and I can only plead with you to think very carefully before parting with any money prior to serous investigation at the very least.
Waffle out of the way and on to the part where I try (note the word try) to find you some winners over the weekend and with the switchback track at Epsom that may be even more difficult than normal. As a writer I feel almost duty bound to cover the filly’s classic over the mile and a half aka The Oaks but that will be a small race for betting purposes and looks pretty tricky to solve. Pink Dogwood has always been seen as the O’Brien Oaks horse back at Ballydoyle (whatever you may read elsewhere) and has apparently improved considerably for her workmanlike return but her odds of 2/1 suck in my opinion and there has to be better value elsewhere. Tarnawa came under serious consideration for Dermot Weld and owner the Aga Khan and could well surprise a few at a big price granted a clear run but at 6/1 John Gosden’s Anapurna looks hard to oppose each way even in this competitive field. The daughter of Frankel bolted up in the Lingfield Oaks trial suggesting she will handle the track and with Frankie Dettori as good as ever in the big races at least, she could well give the favourite plenty to think about up the home straight on Friday.
If I have a bet in Friday (and remember, you can enjoy the racing without opening your wallet or purse), then Pinatubo will be the one in the opener at 2.00pm. Charlie Appleby’s son of Shamardal impressed when winning on his Wolverhampton debut by an easy three and a quarter lengths and if he can transfer that to the turf here, he ought to take a lot of stopping with my favourite jockey James Doyle tasked with doing the steering.
On to Saturday and the Derby over a mile and a half at Epsom in a field dominated by Aidan O’Brien who is responsible for seven of the thirteen runners including favourite Sir Dragonet who impressed when taking the Chester vase by eight lengths from stable compassion Norway who re-opposes here. He still looked pretty green that day and may well have an awful lot more to offer as he gains experience and if Ryan (Moore) can keep him together in this fiercer field, then it may well take something pretty special to stop him coming home in front. At 33/1 or better I did consider Godolphin’s sole entry Line Of Duty who could be interesting in first-time cheekpieces and is already a winner at this level after taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs last November, but a place seems the best he can hope for though I would not put anyone off having a little each-way at that price.
Sadly, the rest of Saturday’s card look too much for my tiny brain, but I will at least point out the racecourse debut of Saqqara King who runs in the 1.55pm at Doncaster Saturday. He does carry the Godolphin second colours whatever that is worth but is a son of American Triple Crown winner American Pharoah out of Santa Margarita Invitational winner Joyful Victory (by Tapit),making him one to watch this weekend, though as we all know a horse’s parentage doesn’t guarantee any ability on the track unfortunately.
New Feature – Horses to Follow.
As I am far too lazy to write a blog more than once a week at present, I thought that a horse a week to follow might be a good idea to keep you going over those lonely days when I haven’t written any more pearls of wisdom. Watching one of the first seven furlong races of the season for juveniles at Yarmouth Thursday afternoon, I was certainly taken by the run of Herman Hesse who came home in sixth after plenty of support seeing the son of Frankel was sent off a 3/1 chance. Slowly away he never really got near enough to challenge but will certainly improve for the race and is well worth adding to any trackers you may use.
Good luck as always,
Sean
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