ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
I have no choice but to start this week with a large helping of humble pie – I just cannot get the Charlie Appleby yard right at the moment, he goes through a bad patch, I ignore his horses and he goes on and wins numerous races last weekend, making me look even more stupid than normal!
Talking of class horses ,what did everyone else make of City Of Troy and the “Hollywood” quotes being bandied around afterwards? Trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore both described him as the best two-year-old they had ever trained/ridden respectively, while part owner Michael Tabor stepped in with “he could be our Frankel” or words to that effect – do you think they like him or is it only me lol? As the miserable old duffer that I am I like to see both sides and as I won’t be snapping up any of the 5/4 for next year’s 2000 Guineas, I decided to waste an hour or two looking for chinks in his armour. First up was his race time on Saturday – he clocked 1.96 seconds slower than average over the seven furlongs which equates to 0.28 per furlong. Compare that to other races on the card and the race before over a furlong further was 0.2525 slower per furlong on potentially softer ground (I am being picky there as it won’t have dried out much in 35 minutes) which makes me ask more questions. Next stop is the formbook, and although he put runner-up Alyanaabi in his place that horse had won by a short-head on his previous start in a slow time on much faster ground? My conclusion, for what it is worth, is that he is clearly a very good horse who seems likely to go on and dominate next season with quicker ground very much in his favour, and unless something comes out of the woodwork I can’t even name a realistic alternative for the 2000 Guineas next year, but he has something to find to even be mentioned in the same breath as the true greats, and I would want bigger than 5/4 that he even turns up at Newmarket, with the weather the great unknown and valuable alternatives if necessary with the French and Irish equivalents.
Sticking with the Irish this week and mumbles and grumbles among our trainers with Dr Richard Newland leading the gripes about Irish horses coming over here and taking our jobs – I mean lower grade races. Running through the numbers and they struck with 18% of their runners, taking £6,500,000 plus back over the Irish Sea when you include the bigger races. After covid Irish horses were banned from Class Five and Six contests over jumps from 2020 until the beginning of this year, but that was lifted at the beginning of this year – though it remains in place on the Flat from September to December. The argument is that low class races are the lifeblood of the smaller stables and that their living is being taken away which I fully understand, but it seems a complicated equation for the experts to me. We continue to ask or even beg for more competitive racing as that attracts the punters (those left who can still bet), which in turn increases the levy in whatever form, and in turn funnels back into prize money. Take away Irish runners and we have smaller fields which are less competitive and less tempting to bet on, so would that result in lower prize money, albeit with 100% heading back to British yards? Add in the stink of protectionism, and a strike rate that suggests they aren’t as successful as some would have you believe and I say No – though perhaps we could increase the race entry fees for “foreign” runners to build up the prize fund, that may be deemed slightly more acceptable to the rest of the racing World?
On to the racing….
Saturday Racing
Sorry but in this weather I am severely limiting my suggestions – the going as I writes for Ascot is expected to be heavy which won’t suit many if any of these, and as I have argued for years that describing it as Champions Day after a long hard season and on softer going ifs frankly laughable, and I can it being switched to an all-weather track in my lifetime.
1.15pm Ascot
Kyprios has had his issues with just the one start this season when he returned from a career threatening injury with a very solid second in the Irish St Leger when Aidan O’Brien had made it perfectly clear he would improve for the race. The winner of all six starts last year and successful on all sorts of going with a heavy ground maiden win I can only assume he is odds against because you can never be 100% certain they will return to their best, but if he does he outclasses these by some margin, making him hard to oppose.
2.25pm Ascot
I genuinely feel Blue Rose Cen is a star filly in the making and she only finished a neck in front of Jacki Oh last time out in the Prix de L’Opera at Longchamp earlier in the month. That form sees Aidan O’Brien’s filly pushed up to a mark of 114, and although this will be her first try at a mile and a half, if she stays then she looks the best of these getting weight as a three-year-old. There is plenty of stamina on her sire’s side as a daughter of Galileo and I suspect she would be short odds if this was over ten furlongs, but it isn’t and the current price looks decent enough value in the hope she gets the trip.
3.45pm Ascot
The going is the question mark once again here but the punters seem to have forgotten the fact that Mostahadaf has won twice on soft ground at Sandown and may yet handle conditions better than most. The winner of the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Juddmonte International at York on his last two starts, both Group Ones, he is officially be best horse in this field by 7lbs, and although he has to give 4lb to King Of Steel and Horizon Dore, that still leaves him well in today. His price is an each way one in my book and I will be playing him that way, though he would become the first five-year-old to win this since 2014.
5.00pm Newton Abbot
Lastly for this weekend word reaches me from Ditcheat that the Paul Nicholls trained (if hard to pronounce) Hikari Pompadour Aa is as forward as any in the yard ahead of the two mile bumper. A son of Jeu St Eloi bought privately by J P McManus, he is related to numerous winners in his native France, and although not one of the best horses in the stable, he is said to be working well enough to hope for a winning debut.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Kyprios 1.15pm Ascot
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