IMPORTANT - ALL VIEWS HERE ARE MINE AND MINE ALONE, GOOD OR BAD, RIGHT OR WRONG
A little shorter than normal this week as I have been a bit of a busy chap with work for the Press Association, my freelance work – oh and a face to face meeting with the Sports Minister on Wednesday afternoon in my guise as HBF Chair – but more of that later.
The main news for me this week was the retirement of old favourite Pyledriver, the unfashionably bred son of Harbour Watch who cost 10,000 Guineas as a foal – and went on to win over £2,000,000 in win and place prize money, including two Group Ones and three Group Twos. Injury has sadly brought his career to an abrupt stop at the age of six but although he seems unlikely to be a multi-million stallion success thanks to breeding snobbery, he will have a decent second career (nice work if you can get it), and won’t be forgotten by any of us after a rags to riches success story. Add in the likeable William Muir who trained hm, and Martin Dwyer who rode him to five of his eight successes, and he proved immensely popular with the racing public, and deservedly so. He is and was an inspiration for all of us potentially scrapping around at the cheaper end of the market, and if any of us can ever find his like in the future, we are will be very happy racehorse owners.
On to the (seemingly) never ending story of the gambling act review and the white paper, and I put on my smartest polo shirt to attend the Houses of Parliament on Wednesday afternoon where Sports Minister Stuart Andrew found the time to listen to our thoughts on behalf of punters throughout the United Kingdom. I appreciate politics isn’t everybody’s cup of tea (mine neither), but I have to say he was welcoming, and looked genuinely interested from the moment we stepped through the door. After introductions we cracked on with affordability checks our first port of call. The minister did confirm that the intention is for the majority of checks to be frictionless and that they will NOT show up on credit reports, but he was unaware that ID, bank statements etc were being demanded by High Street bookmakers as we speak. I did take the chance to point out that any new laws won’t be coming in for a year at least (at a guess), and that in the meantime most if not all regular punters who will fall into the affordability figures will have already been inconvenienced by the current outlandish checks, and potentially walked away from betting altogether or moved to the black market. I did ask for pressure to be brought to bear on the Gambling Commission to sort this out with the bookmakers, but that may be tilting at windmills, though I am meeting those the BGC (Betting and Gaming Council) on Tuesday next week, where I will try to talk to the other side of the coin - if not any attempts to change the affordability rules may all prove to be in vain. In the Minister’s defence we did rather ambush him but he took it all very well, and I genuinely think racing has an ally there (he is quite aware of the importance of the sport as an industry), though what he can do to slow down the runaway moral train of the Gambling Commission, only time will tell.
On to the racing… or the podcast is here for those who prefer… https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/09/07/sean-trivass-met-with-the-sports-minister-what-did-he-say-oh-and-seven-winners-for-saturday/
Saturday Racing
1.35pm Kempton
I am not as convinced as most that this is all over bar the shouting and I fell it may prove to be more open than the early markets imply. I can fully understand why Bay Bridge heads the early betting, but he hasn’t won since the Champion Stakes last October, and has never even tired a mile and a half before. He could outclass them and make me et humble pie once again, but the opposition will know his potential stamina limitations and I am going to take a risk on Roger Varian’s Shandoz at a massive price. Lightly raced, he has won four of his nine starts and two out of three on the all-weather with one of those over C&D, and he was entitled to need his first start in over 21 months when third to St Leger fancy Arrest at Newbury. He does have a mountain to climb on official ratings but you have to wonder why they kept him in training unless they felt he has more to offer, and at 20/1 or bigger he may be worth a very small each way punt.
1.50pm Haydock
This is not a race I am usually keen on for a second – but it is an important contest and work is work I suppose! Light Infantry is 3lb the best of these according to the handicapper and the son of Fast Company was a little unlucky in running last time out when third to Inspiral at Deauville in the Group One Jacques le Marois, and he also has placed form behind Anmaat and Triple Time this year at the highest level. For reasons unknow he fails to excite me, but there is little doubt he is the class act dropped in grade here and to be fair, he does deserve a first victory of the season here.
2.10pm Kempton
Kathab did hang under pressure last time out at Ripon which has to be of some concern for those who have backed him down to favouritism once again, but after wins at Ripon and Haydock prior to that, you would be a fool to rule him out of the equation. He can go well without a doubt, but I am happy enough to risk a small bet on Brains instead – even if he obviously isn’t named after me! He is fully exposed after 52 starts so we can’t claim to have found anything new, but he has won 10 times on the all-weather, four of those here at Kempton, 11 times over this trip (including one on the turf at Ffos Las), and twice off his current mark of 82, the latest being his last success at Lingfield in June. He does have plenty of ticks in the right boxes as far as I am concerned, and if he gets a clear run here he could shock a few of these, though a win in this class may be a touch too much to expect.
2.35pm Ascot
13/2 the field at the time of writing and that tells you well in advance that this is a competitive handicap. Funnily enough we have not had a winner bigger than 14/1 in the last 10 years so all may not be lost after all, and I am happy enough to suggest Havana Blue this afternoon. The winner over seven furlongs at Newmarket in May and June he was then tried over a mile at headquarters where he weakened late on, but I just get the feeling a fast run seven as expected here could see him finish over the top of all of his rivals and give him the chance to put his stamina into play.
3.00pm Haydock
Give me strength with all these wide-open handicaps to try and permutate, and again we are talking 6/1 the favourite. I probably should have given up on Alan King’s Tritonic by now but we all know as soon as I do that he will pop up at a big price, and pride will not let me desert him here. He is yet to win on the Flat this season with a third in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting the pick of his recent efforts, he drops back in trip this afternoon and his last win was over a mile and a half at Goodwood off a mark just 2lb lower than he faces here. I am hoping connections have abandoned the stamina sapping races for now which will allow him to use his speed, and at decent odds he has an each way shout if nothing else off this mark.
3.10pm Ascot
Back to relying on Charlie Appleby again here as he lets the lightly raced Victory Dance make his handicap debut off a mark of 102 this afternoon on his first try at a mile and a half. His two wins so far have been in a novice and Listed class, and he was only beaten a length last time out in Listed company again at Deauville when headed close home over shorter. As a son of Dubawi out of a Street Cry mare his stamina does have to be questioned over this trip, but they throw blinkers on for the first time to help him focus, and if he does get home he ought to prove difficult to beat.
3.35pm Haydock
And a Group One sprint to end the day for my selections if nothing else. Shaquille should win, I want him to win, and the formbook suggests he can win, but at a fraction of odds on I can’t be backing him I’m afraid. He can miss the start, and to be fair that hasn’t stopped him winning yet, but at the prices I would rather have an each way be on Sacred for William Haggas, with Tom Marquand in the saddle. Her last two starts saw a neck second in the Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot and a three-length fifth to Kinross in the City Of York Stakes last month over seven furlongs, but a fast run six on Good ground may be her ideal conditions. Connections try cheekpieces for the first time here which is interesting, and although she does have a little to find, at 14/1 if she hits the first three home we will still make more money than we would if the odds on jolly comes home in front carrying our cash.
Sean’s suggestions:
Victory Dance each way 3.10pm Ascot
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