Oh dear, the great (and seemingly annual) whip debate is back in the headlines once again with a new BHA review, though heaven only knows where that will take us. In a nutshell, racing has to keep the do-gooders at bay who would like to see the sport brought to an abrupt end, but sadly for them, there is a lot more to it than that. Personally, I swing like a pendulum from one side of the argument to the other – and I honestly don’t have an answer. Those who have watched American racing where at some tracks the whip is banned tell me that there are more non-triers than you can shake a stick at (pun intended), so surely that is not the way forward? Obviously, I do not want to see horses beaten by the whip (can you imagine Lester riding today, he would be banned more often than not), but jockeys tell me that without a whip to correct a horse there will be more accidents and potentially fatalities so that cannot be the way to go either. I have been in favour of any horse ridden to success with excessive use of the whip should be disqualified until it struck me (another pun), what better way to guarantee a loser (and a horse to lay on the exchanges), than winning a race knowing full well you will be thrown out? I am still not convinced that the penalty fits the crime, and for me, I would like to see a) harsher penalties for misuse) and b) a scaling of the punishment – the bigger the race the bigger the sentence, in a vain attempt to stop jockeys not caring if they feel the reward outweighs the risks. Overall, I feel the jockeys and the BHA need to get together to decide the way forward, though roadshows at the tracks showing people the whip really doesn’t hurt could be the first step, and why not invite the animal libbers along to show them at the same time and reduce their argument.
It’s a busy weekend for me I’m afraid so it was waffle or horses this week – hopefully you prefer horses because that is the route I have taken – read on, though if you would prefer to listen to our thoughts feel free to go to our free podcast where Ron Robinson of World Of Sport fame will join me at https://postracing.co.uk/2021/07/09/the-dogs-are-barking-and-we-have-a-steamer-alert-in-this-weeks-exciting-post-racing-podcast/
Racing this weekend:
Saturday.
York 2.20pm
A fraction shy of a mile and three-quarters awaits the runners here and with winners priced between 9/4 and 25/1 on the last five years, nothing seems impossible. Hukum heads the market after his third to Wonderful Tonight and Broome in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, and with that form franked by the runner-up, he is an obvious suggestion. He has won over this sort of trip at Newbury, handles the soft ground better than most, and deserves his place at the head of the market and for once I am on the favourite, though there are plenty of serious rivals. Roberto Escobarr is an improving sort, but I am far from convinced he is the same horse on softer ground, Ilaraab has five lengths to find with the selection on Ascot form, and course and distance winner Fujaira Prince has been off since last October, so all in all I can see no good reason to change my mind.
York 4.40pm
Older horses have a decent record in this event and although you cannot write off a horse just because of their age, the three-year-old’s strike rate is a miserly 7% in the last 20 odd years and that puts me off favourite Winter Power here. Dakota Gold has raced here at York eight times in total and won five of them with two runner-up spots as well to his name, though he invariably improves for his first start after a break which is a shame as otherwise, he has an excellent chance. Despite jockey bookings suggesting otherwise I even wonder if Que Amoro is the Michael Dods first string here with Paul Mulrennan in the saddle, and she will strip fitter after her return when a long way behind Oxted at Royal Ascot. She has been keeping ridiculous company of late with a length second to Battaash here last August and although the underfoot conditions are an unknown (she has never raced on anything worse than good to soft), if she handles it she is massively overpriced at 7/1 and looks a solid each way alternative.
Ascot 3.00pm
Eight consecutive winning favourites for this Group two contest and if that run is to be continued, it looks like Century Dream will head the market, though it is currently close between three of them. The Crisford’s seven-year-old won last time out at Windsor in Listed class but more importantly, he has scored four times on soft ground and once on heavy, and one over course and distance. He seems sure to go well but I rarely follow the crowd and I have an each way alternative, albeit a pretty risky one. Al Suhail won a Listed race at Newmarket in July last year by six lengths and looked to be going the right way when only beaten half a length by Lord Glitters at Meydan in March before coming home a distant last in the Dubai Turf on World Cup night. Crucially, he has been gelded since and has his first start since the dreaded operation here. Yes, he may well come on for the run to be fair but at 9/1 he still looks overpriced and a place will do me in a difficult race to call.
Newmarket 3.15pm
Two-year-olds time next with the Superlative Stakes and the usual option of raw form versus untapped potential. Dhabab deserves his place at the head of the market after a comfortable debut win at Leicester and a good run at Royal Ascot in the Coventry Stakes. Sent off the 4/1 favourite that day when ridden by Robert Havlin, the son of No Nay Never was only beaten two and a quarter lengths in sixth despite being stopped in his run at the two pole and again inside the final furlong before running on with venom. Many felt he was an unlucky loser that day, me included, and on form he looks the winner here with a clear run and barring any torrential rain between now and race time. Sadly, he won’t have things all his own way with Charlie Appleby’s once raced Native Trail a very impressive Sandown winner and Tom Dascombe’s possible front runner Mr McCann interesting alternatives, but the selection has the form in the book and will do for me with Frankie Dettori taking over in the saddle.
Newmarket 3.50pm
Handicap time now and although I confess I did not predict the winner last week, I would at least like to add that the first three home all passed my early tests and I only wish I had backed all eight that did in tricasts as it paid a tasty £583.21. maybe that is the way forward, we shall see? From 24 years of data, we can start with age as no horse over the age of eight has won in the stats I have access to, and that gets rid of, well, one horse, but we have to start somewhere! 25 three-year-olds have run in this, and only one has been successful, and that gets rid of two of the first three in the betting (interesting), while stalls 3, 4, 6, 8, 11 and 17 have yet to provide the winner which dilutes the remaining field by a further five, but we still haven’t got that far so we need to be less selective (sadly). No winner has carried less than eight stone eight so bye-bye to Tadleel, On A Session, National League, and Gabrial The Wire, while all the winners have come from the first 13 in the betting so using current odds (which I accept is a risky thing to do), we also lose Cliffs Of Capri, Karibana, and Count Otto, and now we are down to six. Symbolize, Ropey Guest, Boardman, Ametist, Lord Rapscallion, and National League survive but we have one last filter to go through, dodgy as it is. Official ratings – no horse has won this off 91, (farewell National League), and I have to stop there with five left for tricasts and forecasts, and my eventual long-winded suggestion of the William Haggas trained Ametist for the win.
Newmarket 4.25pm
One of the best sprints of the year as far as I am concerned and one where it will be body blow top some connections should their horse not come home in front. Others in this industry will work it all out, go through all the form, add this, subtract that, and divide by the number they first thought of, but this is a heart rules head race for me. There will be plenty in the Starman camp, and I’ll admit he looks a sprinter of immense promise, others will feel Dragon Symbol deserves it after being disqualified from first place the Commonwealth Cup, but I am a massive fan of the underdog and that means Oxted for me. Not only has Roger Teal got a superstar in his small stable with the five-year-old gelding, and hats off to owners for keeping faith with the trainer and racking up a total of close to half a million pounds in win and place prize money, with more to come. Last time out at Royal Ascot he was right back to his best when running away with the King’s Stand Stakes over five furlongs and as he is even better over the six furlongs he faces here (and he won this last season), he looks hard to oppose – so I won’t.
Chester 3.25pm
I will be honest from the start -this is not a race I like the make-up of for one second and whatever selection I come up with, please take it with a pinch of salt. Rhoscolyn looks interesting upped in class after an easy handicap success and he has been a revelation since being gelded and a touch of wind surgery and we may not have seen the best of him yet. He gets weight as a thtee-year-old as well which can only aid his cause, but as you may have already guessed, I am going back over the cliff to back Safe Voyage. The eight-year-old hasn’t been anywhere near to his best so far this season with a last to Palace Pier t Newbury beaten too far to be true, and an eight length eighth of nine to Kinross at Haydock, and if that is as good as he is now, he has no chance. Like the old romantic I am I like to hope he can recapture the efforts that saw him win at Group Two level, and as he has the opportunity to bowl along at the head of affairs from the four stall here, I am hoping for one last big effort to land me a winning bet, even though I will sensibly back him each way to the smallest of stakes.
Belmont USA 9.06pm
Who would have thought Aidan O’Brien would send the much hyped Santa Barbara all the way to New York looking for her first success of the season but that is where she is and Ryan Moore will be on board. The days when American horses were rubbish on the grass is long gone I am sorry to say, and Higher truth looks a huge obstacle to her success here, but if she is as good as they think she is, she can bring home the £281,000 or so first prize this evening.
Belmont USA 10.12pm
Du Jour runs in the name of Bill Mott here having been with Bob Baffert for his earlier wins but as that trainer is barred from running his horses in New York, you can draw your own conclusions. Once again I am covering it because of Aidan O’Brien “failures” with Epsom Derby favourite Bolshoi Ballet in the line-up, and I expect nothing less than a comfortable victory to get the three-year-old’s career back on track.
Sunday.
Fairyhouse 3.20pm
Seven furlongs for fillies and mares for our only Listed race on Sunday afternoon and no great shock to see zero British raiders in the current climate. Surrounding is back at the age of wight looking to repeat her victory from 2019 but the harsh truth is she can’t be getting any better at her age and she will probably have to give way to a younger rival. Ger Lyons won this in 2015 and 2016 with different horses and will know the sort needed, suggesting Soul Search, Angel Palm, and Marbling have some kind of a chance, but preference is for Pearls Galore who ran a blinder when third at Leopardstown in the Ballycorus Stakes on her first start of the season and as she looked as if she would improve for the race, she has as good a chance as any of a third career success on what is only her eighth start at the age of four.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Hukum 2.20pm York Saturday
Win double Santa Barbara 9.06pm and Bolshoi Ballet 10.12pm Belmont Park, Saturday, USA.
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