You may all think I waste my days at the track watching the racing but the truth is, most of my life is spent behind a keyboard or watching race replays, looking for the next winner and making notes all day long.
I am allowed out now and again, and this morning I ventured down to the Paul Nicholls stable in Somerset for a media day organised by The Jockey Club to see what the great man had to say about his chances at Cheltenham.
Naturally I have been beaten to the punch by other articles appearing elsewhere (I had the longer drive home at a guess), but as I like to look for body language and the odd smile, my article may be shorter – but hopefully it will prove to be an awful lot sweeter too!
Now I may have been influenced by all the racing press doom and gloom merchants telling us that the Irish will win every race or some such nonsense, but I admit to being pleasantly surprised by just how bullish Paul seemed about his chances of success. Twelve horses were paraded, but I have decided that we will settle for those I felt he was most confident about – plus a dark horse likely to miss Cheltenham, but one to follow and to add to your trackers for this season and next.
Bravemans Game (Gold Cup Friday) – described by Paul as “twice the horse now” and “one of our best chances of the week” he certainly looked a picture and a bit of a monster to my eyes, and although we all know the Irish will prove tough to beat, I cannot argue with Paul’s assessment that he is the best of the British chasers and at 8/1 with most bookmakers I am sorely tempted to have a little each way.
Hermes Allen (Ballymore Hurdle Wednesday) – I got the feeling Paul is no fan of the bookmakers when he told us this was his best chance of the meeting – according to the odds – but he failed to hide just how highly he regards the six-year-old Poliglote gelding. At a best priced 5/2 after wins at Stratford, Newbury, and more importantly Cheltenham since October, he has no stamina issues and ought to make up in o a chaser next season with his trainer saying “He’s obviously got a huge amount of ability and I’m excited about him going to Cheltenham, but I’m also excited about his future and going chasing next year”. At his current odds I may well look elsewhere myself come raceday (or a better price), but there was no hiding the fact that he comes over as a stable favourite.
Captain Teague (Champion Bumper, Wednesday) – despite some relatively negative phrases such as “We’ve got to go somewhere with him so we’ll let him take his chance in the Bumper” and “It’s a chance for him to have a day out and get some more experience and if we finish fifth or six with him we’ll be absolutely delighted”, I got the feeling they will be disappointed if he doesn’t do better than that! Paul also added that he would be 10/1 if he was Irish but as he currently trades at 25/1 that suggests he may be a spot of value, and let’s not forget Paul rarely runs one in this race, so he must think he has a bit of a squeak.
Stay Away Fay (Albert Bartlett Friday) – this could be one of his dark horses without any doubt and apparently he is not that far behind Hermes Allen – and we all know how good he is. Paul commented that “Lorcan (Williams) would probably say that it wasn’t his best ever ride when he was second on the last day at Doncaster. He got into trouble at the start and all the way up the straight and he still stayed on and finished second in that Grade Two race – he’s got a mark of 136 and who knows where he might end up”. “The horse he beat in his point to point (Monty's Star) beat the favourite for the Albert Bartlett at Clonmel earlier this month (Hiddenvalley Lake). He’s 25-1 and I think he’s one of the best priced outsiders we’ve got and I think there’s a lot to come from him, he’ll make a lovely chaser next year.” – another for the notebooks and at 20/1 a possible each way option.
Thyme White (Grand Annual Wednesday) – one for those who like to speculate but what I can tell you is, he goes well fresh and his absence since November has been a deliberate tactic to see him at his peak come Cheltenham. “He is always brilliant fresh and lets you down second time! He ran very well at Ascot in October, he travelled beautifully in a valuable handicap and absolutely bolted in. He was then favourite for the £100,000 race at Ascot three weeks later and didn’t go at all. He’s obviously at his best fresh so I thought we’d have one go at the Grand Annual with him fresh. He hasn’t run since so we’ll give him an away day tomorrow at Lambourn with Greneteen and then he’ll go for Cheltenham”. “He’s really good fresh and why that is I couldn’t tell you but he looks great and hopefully he’s in there with a chance. He’s one of a few that we’ve got in handicaps that’s got a chance”. Read into that what you will, but he seems well worthy of some serios consideration at 25/1.
Secret Investor (Hunter Chase, Friday) – I honestly think I may well have saved the best for last. Paul told us that “He runs in the St James Palace and he will be ridden by Natalie (Parker) who won on him at Bangor. She couldn’t ride him the other day when he went to Kelso as she got concussed in a point to point so Charlie Sprake took over. “He’s had his two runs – you have to be first or second in two runs to qualify for Cheltenham – and a couple of years before that he beat Clan Des Obeaux in the Denman Chase at Newbury”. I just got the feeling that his trainer thinks he has a live chance at this level and at 10/1 I am already on – each-way of course.
Dark Horse For Elsewhere.
One of the horses we glanced at but who was not brought out on display was Irandando Has, second on his only start in France and yet to make his British debut for his new trainer after leaving the Francois Nicolle stable. Paul joked that we will be seeing him in the tour next season (again ahead of Cheltenham), yet I felt there was a little bit more to his throw away comment than that. A lovely looking son of No Risk At All I suspect he may be pretty decent, and if that is the case, add him to your trackers now – I’ll be surprised if that doesn’t reap dividends.
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