Sadly (or perhaps not), time has become my enemy this week, all my fault with not enough hours in the day, and a weekend away to look forward to, so straight to the horses and none of the small talk – though you know me, I am pretty sure I will be making up for that next week.
On the bright side, the decision has been taken to write this a day early so at least we get a bit more of Goodwood to work with – here’s hoping we can find a winner or two.
If you would prefer to listen to our thoughts feel free to go to the free podcast where Ron Robinson of World Of Sport fame will join me at https://postracing.co.uk/2021/07/29/sunday-evening-racing-is-adayar-a-star-and-a-friday-something-for-the-weekend/
Racing this weekend:
Friday.
Goodwood 2.25pm
Don’t you just love it when you get to start with a race where you are quietly confident you have found the winner, regardless of how poor the price may be? A fraction of odds on still looks like a giveaway price to me about Baaeed, a thrice raced and currently unbeaten son of Sea The Stars who arrives here on the back for a comfortable Listed class win at Newmarket, but looks as if this Group Three and more is easily within his reach. Of course, things can still go wrong (horses are not machines etc etc), but he is ono of the most eye-catching three-year-olds I have seen this season and should win this before stepping up over the rest of his campaign.
Goodwood 3.35pm
I want him to win, I hope he will win, and I think he will win, but the 5/4 about Battaash is too skinny for a horse who was beaten two and a half lengths at Royal Ascot, and who likes to hear his hooves rattle – which he may not get here with every chance of further rain in the Sussex countryside. He is, when he gets the right conditions, the best sprinter I have seen in the UK for many a year, and he has won this race for the last four years which is an incredible feat – but if the ground is soft, we may not see him at his very best. Dragon Symbol is the obvious danger after his run of second spots including the Commonwealth Cup (when disqualified), and the July Cup when mowed down by the amazing Starman. He is a decent sort, but I am going to take the chance on Glass Slippers each way, as the now five-year-old returns to action, and at 9/1 or so, even a place will do for me. I am fully aware that she invariably improves for her first run of the season, but I am hoping (others call it clutching at straws), that trainer Kevin Ryan will have noticed that the rains were coming and upped her a gear accordingly – soft will do her just fine and if she gets it, she could yet surprise them all.
Goodwood 4.10pm
The more I look at this race, the less I like it – even if I have already tipped one of the runners left right and centre. Once again, the issue is going to be the ground – if it dries out to good or better, then Mogul becomes difficult to oppose, if it remains on the soft side, I have a very different opinion. Looking out of my window (and I live about an hour away from the course), and there has been rain recently and there are plenty of black clouds in the sky. If it is soft, then I do think Alounak has a solid enough chance for the in-form Andrew Balding team, and with Silvestre de Sousa in the saddle. For those with short memories (me, for example), a look back at his form reminds us he was a good second in last season’s Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, and although he has taken a while to get back to his best (gelding would do that to me too), he romped home in lesser company last time out with ease and if he can step up on that, his price is the better value in this field.
Saturday.
Newmarket 2.45pm
Katara was the first winning favourite in a very long time to win this when landing the odds of 6/5 last season under Oisin Murphy for Sir Michael Stoute, but whether The Queen’s Portfolio is up to landing it this year for the same stable sems open to question. She is looking for her hat-trick after successes at Leicester and then here over two furlongs shorter when making all the running, and popular as a win would be with the crowd, that was a Class Three handicap, and this looks a lot deeper. There are any number of improvers in this field stepping in to Listed class for the first time, with three of them unbeaten this season so we are forced to play a bit of a guessing game based on the evidence of our own eyes as opposed to the bare form figures. Chiasma top that shortlist albeit very narrowly and only after she finally got off the mark at the third attempt at Kempton when stepped up to this trip last month. She only needed to be pushed out for a two-length success from the very highly regarded Sea Sylph who was odds on there. Although it is impossible to have any confidence in this line-up, with YesYes, Sayyida, and Dhabyah in the field, she does look the one most likely to go on to better things.
Goodwood 3.05pm
A bit of a stamina test for the fillies and mares here with a mile and three-quarters in front of them and it’s a shame John Gosden doesn’t have a runner here we can latch on to having won this event three timer in the last five years, two of those with Enbihaar. Once again, the going is going to be the issue here, and I cannot emphasise enough how important it is in our calculations, with Wonderful Tonight a prime example. Odds-on here, she is an absolute class act and caught them all off guard on her return to action when taking the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot by a very comfortable length and a half, and a repeat of that would be more than enough here. Add the fact that she ought to come on for her first start in eight months and even the 5/6 on offer begins to look pretty generous, but she needs plenty of cut in the ground to be seen at her best, or even make the line-up. Her three starts on anything faster than soft have seen her defeated, and as I type, we are at good to soft and it is drying, suggesting she many not get the conditions she clearly thrives on. That said, and looking out of my Sussex window, the sun is shining through some very black clouds, so all of a sudden, we are not only trying to predict race winners, but the weather as well. If it is soft enough, she really ought to win, but just in case, I will go for an each way alternative in the shape of Divinely who is just too big at 12/1. As long as Wonderful Tonight is the only non-runner come race time (and even that is speculation), then we still have eight runners so a place one-two-three, and a double figure price for Aidan O’Brien’s only runner is too tempting. Admittedly three-year-olds don’t do that well here, but she has placed three times this season, twice of those behind record breaking stable companion Snowfall, but if you took her away, we would be talking about an Irish Oaks winner and an English Oaks second. As the only one of her generation entered, she gets 12lb or more from all her rivals and looks to have an outstanding each way chance to me.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Divinely each way 3.05pm Goodwood Saturday
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