ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
Well first things first and Yes, I was involved in the latest BHA announcement of the POSSIBILITY of changing surfaces when necessary rather than abandon a meeting, though to be honest it did open up a can of worms. In the blue corner, there are those like myself who have a love of the sport – surely if people (usually casual workers paid by the hour) are already at the track (and at this moment in time we are only talking Lingfield), and trainers, horses, jockeys, and the paying public have arrived and then a sudden downpour makes the turf racing surface untenable, the option to switch to the all-weather is a sensible one rather than abandon the meeting with all the furore that goes with it – but wait a moment?! In the red corner, and totally understandably, we have the punters who may not be quite so amenable. Hours spent on form study for soft ground (as an example) will go straight into the bin if its switched to standard all-weather, yet your bets will, with some or possibly most bookmakers, still run, and any losers will have every right to have a moan. It really is a catch 22 with solid arguments on both sides, with clear, early announcements possibly the key. Letting everyone know the night before that it is even a possibility is a starting point (similar to telling us about an inspection), and regular updates through the morning, though a last minute decision remains on the cards. What is does remind us of is the frankly ridiculous scenario of different bookmakers having different terms and conditions. I am told some will void all bets immediately (so we can then decide to go back in – or not), but others will let them run, whether you want them to or not – and that is where I cannot agree. Bookies should be asked (or preferably told) to have the same rules regardless so we all know where we stand, with the option to void our bets for a change of surface – though it is Sods Law that any horse we decide to bypass will win on either surface leaving us with egg on our faces. Luckily, and to put things into perspective, Lingfield only have a few turf meetings so the chances are this new rule will rarely if ever come into play (famous last words), but it yet more evidence that whatever you do, you can’t please everyone.
Over the pond next to the 150th Kentucky Derby, and you can laugh at American racing to your hearts content, but what a race, and in front of 150,000 fans - I can’t see that at Epsom, can you? Coming to the wire we had a three-way battle between Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone, and Japanese raider Forever Young, with the official margins just a nose and a nose in one of the closest finishes you will ever see. Sadly, all the post-race talk has not been about the race, or the winner, but it has all been about the lack of a Stewards enquiry after some bumping between the second and third, with accusations that jockey Tyler Gaffione (on board runner-up Sierra Leone had grabbed the reigns of Forever Young. Apparently (and I had to look it up), no objections were lodged, and the Stewards saw it as six of one, half a dozen of the other, saying
“The Stewards review every race in Kentucky live and by video replay before posting it official and they followed the same procedure for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. After conducting their standard review of the race, determining no further review or investigation was necessary to conclude there were no incidents that altered the finish of the race, and seeing there were no objections filed, the Stewards posted the Kentucky Derby official”. Interestingly, Tyler has been “called in” for a video replay on the 9th May which in my mind says something, but it is, of course, too late to change the result. As for the reigns grabbing “incident”, some have suggested his whip got entangled in Forever Youngs reigns and he was forced to get it back out (how close must they have been, I have never heard that one before), but I will finish by suggesting there would certainly have been an enquiry here, a positive sentiment for British racing in a time when it suffers so much criticism.
Next up we have to congratulate Willie Mullins on being crowned Champion British trainer, but that in turn raises questions. In becoming the first Irishman to achieve the feat since the legendary Vincent O’Brien in 1954, he only needed 20 odd winners which for me, says more than the fact he trains overseas. Yes we do have a lack of quality horses in comparison but that is not an Ireland versus Britain thing – it’s a Willie Mullins dominance issue which is harder to solve. For me, and just a personal view, it tells us everything we need to know about the prize money balance – there is far too much money in far too few races (and we are basically talking Cheltenham and Aintree here), and I wonder if some of those riches would be better spread among more races? Would anyone seriously argue with me that if you knocked £10,000 off of some (or all) of the Cheltenham contests the fields would alter in any way? I don’t think so, but what that could do is boost other meetings significantly and bring us more competitive racing throughout the season, something both racing and racing fans have been crying out for in the last decade or so?
Lastly for the “chat”, I have been suggesting for some time now that all-weather racing is the way forward – even if I have been shot down in flames on a regular basis. Their fields are, generally speaking, larger and far more competitive than anything on the turf, albeit at a lower level, and now we have seen a 2000 Guineas winner in the shape of Notable Speech whose three races pre-Newmarket had all been over the mile on Kempton’s polytrack. 1000 Guineas winner Elmalka started life with a maiden win at Southwell (though she did have a run at Newbury before the fillies’ classic), whole Cheshire Oaks winner Forest Fairy had won first time out at Wolverhampton on her only previous start. I guess what I am trying to say is those of us of a certain age, who have always seen all-weather racing as a poor relation to the turf, need to wake up and smell the roses, the surface is here to stay and our top trainers see it as a perfect starting point for many if not all of their better horses.
Tired of reading – hear my views and those of Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame on our podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2024/05/10/mullins-switching-tracks-kentucky-derby-all-weather-classic-winners/
On to the racing….
Saturday
Lingfield 2.25pm
There was a time in the dim and distant past when the Oaks and Derby trials at Lingfield were seen as serious trials for Epsom (thanks to a similar track configuration), but I will be surprised if the winner of this cuts any mustard in the second fillies’ classic in June. There is still a winner to be found, and although we live in the year 2024, a Royal winner will still prove popular with the crowd. Ralph Beckett seems to have an embarrassment of riches with his three year olds after Forest Fairy won the Cheshire Oaks earlier this week, and he sends two here, with Treasure (each way) seemingly the first pick with Rossa Ryan in the saddle. A once raced home-bred daughter of Mastercraftsman, she hacked up in a minor race at Nottingham in October last year on heavy ground, but is bred to be far happier on this quicker surface. With all the talent at home Ralph should have a pretty good idea where she sits in the pecking order, and if she beats hot favourite and impressive Wetherby winner Danielle here she won’t be 50/1 for the Oaks within seconds of the race ending.
Ascot 2.40pm
One handicap is one too many for me, but I know readers like bigger priced options so I have had a good look at the Victoria Cup – just the 25 runners to work though then! Looking at past races, and in the last 10 years (eight runnings) the draw tells me very little with winners from all over the shop, from the two stall to the 29 stall – so back to the drawing board! Seven of the last 8 winners did finish in the first seven last time out, all of them were priced at 20/1 or shorter, all of them were aged four or five, all of them were officially rated 104 or less, and seven of them were rated 89 or higher. Seven raced in the last 60 days, and if we cobble all those facts from past runnings together, (noting I have to use current prices, not those at the off), and hope they are repeated here, then we can lose all bar two of the runners – if only life was so simple! Mostabshir and Arabian Storm will fight out the finish IF all those statistics are upheld, and I’ll admit to having a cheeky little reverse forecast to pennies – just in case. Of the pairing, neither trainer has won this in the last decade, nor had a place so they tie for scores in that way, but Mostabshir is only 2lb worse off with Arabian Storm for close to six lengths on their Kempton March form and that is enough to suggest he could come out on top again here.
Lingfield 3.00pm
As Derby trials go this isn’t the best of them by any stretch, but I would guess that Illinois is the likeliest to make a splash in the markets if he wins here for the O’Brien team. He is trading favourite as I write, but needs to step up on his Leopardstown third where the heavy going may well have blunted some or all of his finishing speed. He would be the obvious suggestion but at the early prices I am sorely tempted by a little each way on Karl Burke’s Imperial Sovereign. A winner first time out at Newcastle last year, he only went under by a head on his return at Kempton where he was trying to give 7lb to the winner which looked a huge ask. He kept on well all the way to the line suggesting a fast run race as expected here will see his stamina come into play, and although stepped up considerably in class this afternoon, at 16/1 he could surprise a few and hopefully land the place part of our bets at the very least.
Lingfield 3.35pm
I hate it when I want to oppose a glaringly obvious favourite, so I won’t with Remarquee heading the early betting at Evens for trainer Ralph Beckett as she returns to the track after wind surgery. We haven’t seen her since she came home fourth to Mqse De Seigne at Deauville in the Group One Prix Rothchild last July when she weakened late on over the mile, suggesting the seven furlongs here is her ideal. Add in top-class form including seconds to Tahiyra in the Coronation Stakes and to Nashwa in the Falmouth Stakes, both Group Ones, and she is close to impossible to oppose. That said my bets will be smaller than normal as she is returning from wind surgery and has to give close to a stone to the younger and race-fit Great Generation, but there will still be some long faces in the betting ring should she fail to land the odds.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Peking Opera each way 1.50pm Lingfield Saturday
When you see something, you cannot unsee it and that leads me to the massively priced Peking Opera, a 33/1 chance for the 1.50pm at Lingfield this afternoon. Formerly in the care of Aidan O’Brien in Ireland, the son of Galileo was bought for 100,000 Guineas at the September sales for a hurdling campaign, winning at Sandown before falling at the last when beaten at Kempton, and reverting to the Flat when last of 10 in the Group Three John Porter Stakes at Newbury. The Moores are nobody’s fools, and add blinkers to the four-year-old this afternoon as he drops into handicap company for the first time off a mark of 103, and if the headgear works he has every chance. He won a Listed race at Navan a year ago so is clearly no mug, and finished less than 10 lengths behind Auguste Rodin at The Curragh in the Irish Derby and six lengths behind Vauban in the Group Three Ballyroan Stakes at Naas, all of which suggests he has the ability to go well here IF he can be persuaded to give his all.
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